The U.S. is still leading the world in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Demand for travel is still at historic lows. So, it begs the questions – if Hawaii opens will tourists return?
At the moment, Hawaii is considering welcoming tourists back via a pre-testing program, as well as via resort bubbles. But, officials in Hawaii aren’t really asking a, perhaps, more important question: if Hawaii opens will tourists return? Why is it important to ask this question? Well, because, if we open, and people don’t really come, businesses will have to close once again. And that can be incredibly costly. Especially when you look at the resort bubble model.
Determining what demand will look like can be difficult, though. Especially during these uncertain times. However, there are places that reopened months ago and serve as a good approximation of what we can expect.
Las Vegas
Sin City reopened to visitors back on June 4. News reports, social media posts, and so forth showed huge crowds of people filing into casinos. Granted, only a hand full of resorts reopened at the time. So, now, nearly three months since then, and a resurgence of cases, what does Vegas look like today?
As it turns out, things are going so well out there. Since reopening, the total number of cases there have soared from 7,100 to 55,500. That’s an 87% increase in less than three months.
Things aren’t all that great when you look at actual numbers either, though. Unemployment fell to about 14% down from about 30% in July. That’s down just 1% from June. Visitor recovery has recovered by only about 23% to 70% of 2019 numbers. Hotel occupancy as at an average of about 40%, while RevPAR is at 61.5%
With such a low RevPAR number, you’d be right in assuming that rates are super low right now. If you’re willing to risk a visit, you can score a 3-night stay at Nobu for just $125/night. The Cosmopolitan is offering 20% off current rates and a $50 pool credit. Want something even cheaper? You can score a $25/night rate for a three-night midweek stay at Harrah’s. And the list goes on.
Disney World
Disneyland remains closed thanks to California’s emergency orders. However, Disney World has reopened. Like Vegas, they saw an initial surge in demand. However, attendance quickly fell to 50% compared to the year before, and then down by 80%. And, as Florida’s case rates continue to remain high, cancellations are up.
Demand is down so much that, after Labor Day, the House of Mouse is cutting its hours. Epcot is losing two hours per day, while all other parks are closing an hour early.
In an effort to bolster park attendance, Disney is offering deeply discounted tickets to Florida residents. Those tickets come in at $65 per day for a two-day package, $58 per day for a three-day package, and $49 per day for a four-day package. Typically, those packages would cost $107, $106, and $103 per day, respectively.
If Hawaii Opens Will Tourists Return, Final Thoughts
Looking at how things went in Las Vegas and Disney World, I think it’s reasonable to assume that Hawaii will see a similar pattern. But that can only happen once we return to unrestricted tourism. With the quarantine orders, visitor numbers will likely remain low, though they have been steadily increasing. But, even the resort bubble plan won’t likely result in a surge of visitors. After all, who wants to come here and never leave the resort? Especially since Hawaii resorts aren’t all-inclusive.
As far as hotel rates in Hawaii goes, they’re actually going up, not down. For example, I have reservations at the Ritz-Carlton Waikiki in September. And since I booked the stay earlier this year, the rate already increased by nearly $70.
Even looking at the Honolulu Marathon weekend, prices are higher for this year than last. Take a look. Last year, I paid $255 per night before taxes and fees at the Alohilani Resort. This year? The rate is at $275 per night.
Hawaii hotels say they’re keeping rates high because of all the financial pain they’ve been going through. And while there are those that will be willing to pay these rates, I doubt there will be many.
They’ll return, but it will take time and will require some consistency from the government. What I mean is that the news coming out of Hawaii has been essentially bouncing back between open and closed, with some stories peppered in about tourists getting arrested for not self isolating properly, etc.
So I would expect to get back to near normal numbers, Hawaii will need to demonstrate a steady stance toward tourism for some period of time, in a manner consistent with allowing people to do the sort of things they expect to be able to do on vacation.
You’re absolutely correct. However, even if officials set and stick to a plan, I think we’ll continue to see restrictions here, much like in Vegas. At least until an effective vaccine or therapeutic becomes available. What’s more, with unemployment rates remaining high around the nation, I’m sure many that had planned to come no longer can afford to. Economists here think it’ll be three to four years before we get back to 2019 numbers.
For all it’s faults, including poor governance, Hawaii is still the go to place for me. The Caribbean or Mexico are cheaper, with good reason. The unique combination of culture and geography make it a great place to explore, which is why I won’t be staying in a resort bubble, which to me defeats the purpose of going. So I wouldn’t worry, the demand is there, it’s pent up, and ready to explode. Please open up soon.
Exactly. While I think there will be demand for the bubbles, Hawaii has increasingly seen tourists that want to experience the place for what it really is. And they won’t return until things are mostly back to normal. That’s how I like to travel and, even without the inter-island quarantine last month, too many places remained closed for me to even consider doing any island hopping.
I love Hawaii, I live in Philadelphia and I go to Hawaii at least twice a year- the Aulani is my families favorite hotel in America, I love Hilo, and I might be alone in my love for that side of the Big Island- I think there will be a surge for Hawaiian Vacations from West Coast folks, but 35 days after the state reopens, you will start to see the discounts and some sweet Airbnb listings.
Right. Much like what happened in Vegas and Orland, I think the initial surge will give way to a long, slow recovery. Not the silver bullet government officials seemingly think we’ll get.
No thanks… Already been burned on a trip planned and cancelled due to the insane Governor who keeps moving the goal post around. Between Hawaii treating tourists like criminals and the absurd tourist taxes/resort fees, no thanks. Won’t be spending my hard earned money there anytime soon.
Many restaurants and retail have closed here on Maui permanently. The damage is done. I don’t see a rebound for a long long time. The politicians failed us all.
Agreed with all above that Hawaii demand is set to explode, given the right conditions.
Re: Resort Bubbles: I don’t see this as any kind of solution. Resorts are nice, but the best aspects of a Hawaiian vacation are off resort property. Hiking through amazing scenery, volcanoes, black (and green) sand beaches, scenic drives, enjoying local food spots, etc. Being cooped up on a resort while being so close to those amazing opportunities yet being unable to partake would be like a special form of torture for me. Plus, let’s not forget that the resort amenities were designed from a capacity standpoint with the understanding that on any given day, a good proportion of guests would be off property doing other stuff. If they book the resort full as a bubble, the beach and pool areas would likely be severely overcrowded.
This is a good point, Wes. Disney grossly underestimated the draw of Aulani’s on-property features when designing it. So, ever since the property fully opened, it’s been almost constantly overcrowded – especially the pools. It’s a big reason why we divested our DVC ownership a few years ago. And that issue would only be exasperated if Aulani were to become a resort bubble. Though, Aulani and MVC properties are uniquely equipped to both comfortably house employees and welcome guests if this were ever implemented on Oahu. That said, I would never confine myself to a resort, so…
Hi! I think this paragraph has a typo in the first sentence:
“As it turns out, things are going so well out there. Since reopening, the total number of cases there have soared from 7,100 to 55,500. That’s an 87% increase in less than three months.”
Did you mean “aren’t”?
Thanks for the post!